The internet has come a long way ....

  • The Internet will influence      nearly half of total retail sales in 2010, compared to 27% in 2005.
    • This projection combines total       sales transacted online with those carried out off line but encouraged by       online research.
    • Offline sales will grow at a       faster rate than online sales over the next five years, indicating both       the need and opportunity for multichannel retailers to integrate their       offerings.
  • 85% of online shoppers said      they used the Internet to research their offline purchases in 2005.
  • Online retail spending will      increase from $81 billion in 2005 to $95 billion in 2006, and will grow to      $144 billion in 2010 (Jupiter)
  • By 2010, 71% of online users      will use the Internet to shop compared to 65% in 2005

Here's the source

A bit bearish on google

I've been a bit bearish on google stock for  a while. I've thought about shorting the stock and have been rightfully scared. I would have lost my shirt over the last 12 months.

But I have to say when I read this article quoting that google execs sold 7.4 billion worth of stock and this quote in particular...it makes me wonder.

Nevertheless, it is remarkable that not a single Google insider has bought a single share of the company in the 18 months since the IPO lock-ups expired, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from the Washington Service, which tracks insider sales. Philip Remek at Guzman & Co. in Coral Gables, Florida, is still the only equity analyst with a “sell'’ rating on Google; you could argue that he’s not such a lone wolf, given the behavior of the company’s owners.

My son's graduation from nursery school

My son graduated from nursery school yesterday.  Hard to believe but it's true. It was a nice day and very cute to see -- my son was acknowledged as the best cashier in the nursery school.  I was proud.

I don't recall "graduating" from nursery school. In fact, "graduation" only  applied to high school and college when I was growing up.   What's up with all the new "graduations" and levels in today's elementary education?  On the one hand, I guess this is a good thing -- the kid feels acknowledged for the life steps thier taking. On the other hand, it undermines the real graduations that occur in life. 

My fortieth birthday

I am going to take a trip sometime next year to celebrate my 40th birthday. I'm thinking about taking about a month and doing one of the following:
i) back country snowboarding in Aspen or Jackson Hole or Calgray
ii) A himilayan trek with my friend Parthiv
iii) Motorcycle Europe
iv) Learn to fly and fly around America (yes, mom, that means a pilot's licence)
v) Rafting in New Zealand
vI) A month of intensive yoga
vii) Mountain climbing or eco challenge of some kind
Other places of travel interest are cuba, spain, and chile.

I thought about going to a buddhist retreat and sitting silent for a month but I don't think that works for me now. I need to get cracking on planning once I figure out what to do....any thoughts from you?

Jet Blue misinformation

Got this information today. Thought it was funny and in a way interesting. If you are flying JetBlue out of Sea-Tac and you are checking luggage, you will find yourself confronted with 2 lines. One line is typically very long, the other very short.

The majority of the people standing in the short line will tell you that the short line is for people who printed boarding passes from home. Don't listen to them, they are wrong.Both lines are exactly the same - except for length. With this information, you can skip ahead of all the poor saps waiting in the long line.

How is it this misinformation happens ?  Where do you see it happening online?

Gotta respect the guy

So I haven't met Jason Calacanis yet....and I hope to one day soon. But he's in my blog roll and I read his recent post on life at AOL and had to feel for him. He's doing a noble job at trying to bring AOL back from the early 90's and is struggling against many big company problems -- i.e. the "call" and AOL's "data valdez". I read a similar post that is worth reading by Niall Kennedy on his departure from Microsoft.

Reading these posts makes me respect the guys who act as intrapreneurs and catalysts within big companies -- in some ways it's harder than entrepreneurship (and in some ways it's easier -- afterall you can always go home at 5PM and know that the gig isn't reliant on you showing up with your best game). That said, Given Niall's departure from MSFT, I have to wonder how long Jason will put up with life at AOL ...

An addendum to the 5 year plan

"My guiding principle was simplicity", he said, and throughout his career this remained the focus of his design philosophy. ... In 1957, Cray and some others left to start Control Data Corporation... At CDC, Cray's legendary dislike of bureaucracy soon became apparent. Asked to write a five-year plan for the company, his response was: 'Five year goal: Build the biggest computer in the world. One-year goal: Achieve one-fifth of the above.'"

the 5 year plan

I had coffee with Dave Cotter, founder of mpire, yesterday. We were talking about the start up experience. Two points I made that I think are worth repeating:
i) It takes 5 years to build a company of value.  I know there are instance where people are successful building great assets in less than 5 years -- but in my experience, it takes most businesses time to settle down and work out the kinks to start making real money.
ii) Start ups are all about the emotional roller coaster ride. You go up and you go down much more than one does at a big company. It's this ride that people really sign up for when they start a company.

An inconvenient truth

Saw the movie tonight. I was brought to tears. It's a devastating movie -- i wasn't left with a lot of hope. Just as I was leaving the movie I was reminded of the day that we learned that my mother in law Judy was diagnosed with cancer. We were in her hotel and she was rolled up in a boll crying. After seeing this movie, I wanted to roll up in a ball and cry....I've just learned what I alwasy knew -- that the earth has cancer and we in America are guilty of smoking. 

I walked out of the airconditioned movie theatre and into scorching 90 degree heat at 11PM in NYC.  Fuck, we've got cancer.  I've already bought my hybrid car and a we're likely to put in solar power into our house ....but what's an individual to do. I read my friend Ryan McIntyre's post on the movie and gaine a little hope....but not enough. If you've got suggestions, I'm all ears. Shouldn't we all quit our jobs and conduct a lorenzo's oil experiment to fix this pressing problem?

The battle around paying users

I told you that I was tracking the netscape vs. digg business model discussion surrounding compensating contributors. This debate has continued to sizzle (particularly as youtube video distribution skyrockets) and theirs a great post at publishing 2.0 on it. Worth reading the whole thing but here's an excerpt....

It took eight months for Fritz Grobe and Stephen Voltz to mastermind a now iconic Web video that shows them creating intricate fountains of soda by dropping 500 Mentos into 100 2-liter bottles of Diet Coke. The video became an instant hit after it was published in June on Revver, a service that shares ad revenue. Within days, bootlegs showed up on Google and YouTube. Voltz, a civil litigation lawyer, figured out the process for getting the videos removed. But as copies kept reappearing, Voltz learned that he had to keep contacting YouTube to take down each new version.

The Mentos/Diet Coke video was seen 5.5 million times on Revver and made Grobe and Voltz $30,000. But Voltz estimates they lost another $30,000 to pirated copies. And for several days recently, blogs buzzed with attempts to sort out the rights of artists to control uploaded videos. As the prospect grows for making money online, what started as a lark for many is becoming all too serious.

User-generated content is going through a novelty phase, where most “users” are content with attention as a form of recompense for their efforts. But for savvy “users” — or in this case video production artists, let’s get real here — getting paid in attention while hosting platforms like YouTube get all the take-to-the-bank revenue is sheer lunacy.

To all the Web 2.0 sites that think they are going make a fortune off of “free” user-generated content — it’s the users calling…they want their money. And if you don’t give it to them, they are going to take their content elsewhere.

I'm going to see an inconvenient truth

It's hot as hell in NY today so I thought I'd go sit in the AC and watch Al Gore's new movie tonight. The irony of that statement isn't lost on me.  Ive been meaning to see this movie for some time...so tonight is the night.

Here's some interesting data from a blog I read regularly:
A poll carried carried out for the BBC World Service of nearly 20,000 people from across 19 countries found wide support for alternative energy strategies.

The poll illustrates a perceived triple threat from the way the world produces and uses energy.

Majorities across all 19 countries indicate that citizens fear:

the climate and environment are being harmed
that the global economy will be destabilised
that competition for energy will lead to greater conflict

Some eight out of 10 of those questioned were worried about the threat to the environment. In Australia, Great Britain, Canada and Italy the level of concern topped 90%.

Doug Miller, president of the poll firm GlobeScan, said: "What's fascinating is that in the midst of historically high energy prices and geopolitical tensions, the number one energy concern in every industrialised country we surveyed is the environmental and climate impacts."

Creating tax incentives to encourage the use of alternative energy sources such as wind and solar power found favour with 80% of respondents.

But there was lukewarm support for more nuclear energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. On average, 49% were in favour of building more nuclear plants.

Majorities of 60% or more in 18 of the 19 countries polled said they feared energy shortages and prices would destabilise the world economy.

The least concerned was Russia, a major oil and gas producer, which benefits from higher prices.

Both US and EU leaders have warned Russia not to use energy as a tool of foreign policy. Earlier this year, the nation's monopoly, Gazprom, cut off gas supplies to Europe during a price dispute with Ukraine.

Some 73% of those questioned were worried that energy shortages would lead to greater conflict among nations.

In total, 19,579 citizens were interviewed in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Egypt, France, Germany, Great Britain, India, Israel, Italy, Kenya, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Korea, Ukraine and the US.

Polling was conducted for the BBC World Service by polling firm GlobeScan and its research partners.

Why the blogher conference was great

I went to San Francisco for the Inman Realty show and decided to stop by the blogher conference. Wow...I'm really glad I did.
The conference was great!  The reasons are:

  • Really practical information was communicated in very relevant efficient manner
  • Attendees were helpful, interesting and passionate
  • Get 300 women together to talk about a topic fundamentally more more collaborative, more fun and more informative than getting 300 men together.

Do I need to go on?  Bottom line, I've always thought that men have a lot to learn from women and this conference proved that fact.

Gold's Gym Nightmare Continues

Most recent correspondence from Gold’s Gym

Hi Andy,

I did take this to a corp. meeting and they stated that I would need the cancellation form and if you do not have the cancellation form you will have to pay the Past Due Balance amount to GO MORE FINANCIAL @ 1-888-466-6730 and the membership has already been terminated.

April
Gold's Gym Member Services

My email flame back to Gold’s Gym – I’m getting angry

April,
I do not owe you any money. I have been a loyal customer since you launched this gym. I've been nice and understanding while you guys figured out what was going on with your merger.

I am no longer feeling nice and understanding. I do not like wasting my time on this...but I like even less the way you think you can invade my life and call me for collections that I do not owe you.

I've been into the Gold's gym that I signed up for at least 3 times with my contract and paperwork and discussed with management ....all in an effort to try and get this resolved.  Enough. No more.

Let me tell you what I am going to do:
i) I'm going to ask that you reconsider your decision and talk with Lauren about the details of this situation to see if your desire to collect 190$ is right and worth it.

ii) In the meantime, I've posted about this on my blog and will continue to do so.

iii) I own a company called Judy's Book which has a readership of over 30K people in Seattle alone and is a site designed for customer reviews of small businesses. I obviously will post the result of our discussion to them. Check it out....www.judysbook.com

iv) I hate to say it but if necessary I may be forced to consider more aggressive forms of PR around this story -- the story being company signing consumer up for subscription service and then harassing them even though they tried to correctly cancel their service.  Did you hear about the AOL cancel service -- this was a big story. I hate to see your desire to collect 190$ incorrectly blow out of proportion on you ...but your treatment of me is simply wrong. I could send a press release to the

seattle

times, the

seattle

weekly, etc. I could be more guerrilla too -- I'll just print up our story and post this at the different gold's gyms in Seattle so people know how you treat your "valued" customers.

v) If all the above doesn't works, I may consider small claims court....I've never been and this could be a fun learning experience. And by the way -- if all that doesn't work, I still won't pay because you're just wrong. 

Why hasn't anyone called to actually understand the situation from my perspective?

Are you sure your firm wants to escalate this more?

I'm tired...and frustrated and annoyed.  Can't you we resolve this in some way please...before I actually start to take pleasure in fighting back for my rights? 

Thanks for doing the right thing here.....

Let me know what you'd like to do. If I don't hear back from you within by Aug 3rd, I'll assume, you think the value of collecting 190$ is more valueable than the relationship and reputation you with customers in Seattle, online, etc.  You know what they say about a negative word of mouth don't you? People are 10X more likely to talk about and blast it out.

It's up to you.

Andy